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Independent Poll Analysis for the Forth Coming Anambra, November 6th , 2021 Gubernatorial Elections.

 *IGBO PUBLIC AFFAIRS FOUNDATION (IPAF)* 

                      www.igbopublicaffairs.com


 Independent Poll Analysis for the Forth Coming Anambra, November 6th , 2021 Gubernatorial Elections.


24/05/2021


Gentlemen of the Press;

The State of the Economy, Unemployment, Security and Development of Infrastructural Backbones are likely to be the central debate ahead of the forthcoming November 6th Gubernatorial Elections in Anambra State. Although Standardization of Education remains high priority for the people, there is a high probability it will not dominate the front burners because of the delicate nature of welfare related issues as occasioned by the economic implications of Covid-19 Pandemic while security of lives and properties at this time in our nation’s history especially in the South East will continue to dominate the political landscape.

 To follow up on this electioneering projections, the Anambra: Gubernatorial Polls Group (AGPG) in collaboration with Igbo Public Affairs Foundation (IPAF), just like since it’s inception 6 years ago, will intermittently provide high-quality briefing on results of Polls Analysis for the Electorates, Politicians, and the wider public with a view of enabling individuals draw their own conclusions on proceedings as we move forward. All briefings will be based on the wide profile of existing research by the AGPG & IPAF and other credible research institutions.

There is an urgent need for evidence-driven policy assessment especially the implications of each Political Party’s commitment to Economy, Unemployment, Security, Infrastructure, Education and sundry neglected areas, with unique emphasis on the vulnerable or disadvantaged people across the State; more so, at this critical time when individual Political Party’s are working assiduously towards producing their Flagbearers through their various Primaries. 

This intervention aims to ginger public understanding of the analysis of the four (4) key components of Elections which are;

1) Weaknesses in any component that can undermine the integrity of participating Political Parties.

2) Voter Mobilization

3) Voter Registration and Voter Registration List

4) Voting Technology and Voting System Certification


For the benefit of this particular Press briefing, we shall be taking on the first component, which is;

1) Weaknesses in any component that can undermine the integrity of participating Political Parties;

This thematic area aims to do the following;

a. Assess the likely implications of a Weak Candidate or FlagBearer.

b. Set out the key priorities any participating Political Party should seek to address, for the strong reason of equity.

c. Geographical Strength of the Party.

d. Provide an assessment of how well each Party’s manifesto addresses the key challenges in Economy, Unemployment, Health, Security, Infrastructure, Education, other neglected areas and highlight the priorities which have been omitted.


Analysis;

This examination was based on the results of the collated Data and information from the 21 Local Government of Anambra State using Four (4) main Political Parties namely;

1) All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)

2) All Progressives Congress (APC)

3) Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)

4) Young Progressive Party (YPP)


From the available data, it is without doubt that the above mentioned Political Parties parade arrays of Strong likely Candidates, so needless to stress the direct implications of a weak Candidate in a strong elections of this manner; again with a caveat. Judging the existing data, it is almost a conclusive finish that the issue of equity will play a vital role in the coming election.

From 1999 till date, with Anambra South Senatorial Zone having done the least tenure at AGU AWKA,  the balance of equity is hanging lopsidedly against the South Senatorial Zone, which from all analysis is highly favoured to produce the next Governor, hence the destination of choice.  This is also in line with the precedent already set by Mr Peter Obi’s Administration when same Governorship slot was solely preserved for the North Senatorial Zone which saw the three major Political Parties fielding only Candidates from that particular Zone. 


APGA is the Party to beat in this coming Gubernatorial Elections, all perceived shortcomings notwithstanding which is normal with a ruling Party; the record shows a lot of leverages in terms of Legacy Projects, structures, strategies, aboriginal sense of ownership of the Party and sense of belonging. APGA’s strength is further enhanced with the prospects of a sound and acceptable Candidate. There seems to be an unwritten terms of Candidate’s pedigree in the internal selection processes of APGA, this is another big advantage.

 

Further analysis of available data reveals that though Anambra State incumbency is in the hands of All Progreesives Grand Alliance (APGA), the State is still largely Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in terms of spread and dormant cells which needs urgent reactivation. The Party has what it takes to maximize the prevailing despondence of the ruling Party.  PDP shows strong character in revamping efforts towards a resounding victory. However, issues of Party reconciliation, Grassroots outreach and sense of belonging remains paramount.


The chances of All Progressives Congress (APC) remains at all time low, no thanks to the perceived abysmal performance of the Party at the Federal Level and the inherent anti-Igbo disposition of the Party. Though, the chances of fielding knowledgeable and experienced Candidates can automatically alter the equation. 


Young Political Party (YPP) on the other hand, is a budding political party likely to spring surprises, from analysis; YPP may likely benefit from the prevailing youth renaissance sweeping across the Nation. Most opinionated data on YPP emanated mostly from people of Younger Generation.


Gentlemen of the Fourth Estate of the realm, as you already know, this is an ongoing and continuous research, as we await the conclusion of the various Party primaries come June/July.. November is still some few months to come, so the validity of this poll solely depends on the consistency of actions and actors involved. We shall dwell on the next component in our future episodes especially the important issues of individual Party Candidate’s strength or weaknesses.


Thank you once again.


Uzoh George-Tiga(mnim)

Convener

07068878249

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